An international team is currently closely tracking the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4. The impact probability estimates for the year 2032 has been reduced from a peak of 3 percent to below 0.001 percent.
Asteroid 2024 YR4, first discovered in December 2024, triggered a first-ever notification from the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) on January 29th 2025. The early calculations predicted an impact probability of 1.3% with Earth on December 22nd 2032 and estimated its size between 40 and 90 meters. These estimates gave the asteroid a Torino scale rating of risk level 3 in the range of 0-10, which meant a target meriting close attention by astronomers.
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